Come now, you who say, “Today or tomorrow we will go to such and such a city, spend a year there, buy and sell, and make a profit”; whereas you do not know what will happen tomorrow. For what is your life? It is even a vapor that appears for a little time and then vanishes away. Instead you ought to say, “If the Lord wills, we shall live and do this or that.” But now you boast in your arrogance. All such boasting is evil.
James 4:13-16
As we say good-bye to one year and prepare to welcome the beginning of another, we are often encouraged to take time to reflect on the year ending and make plans for the new year. How do we go about doing that? What are the criteria we use to evaluate the past, and determine plans for the future?
From my personal observations and experiences, I have come to the conclusion that often we engage in the fallacy of presumptive reasoning. James, in the passage quoted above, warns against this faulty way of thinking. He refers to someone who is obviously making plans for the immediate future, saying that he is about to head out on a journey that will take him to a certain destination where he will engage in business transactions that will result in a profit. There are several obvious fallacies in his line of reasoning.
First, he is assuming that he will be physically able to make this projected journey. Granted, this is something we all do – we make plans as if we are going to be around to see the fulfillment of those plans. We don’t usually make it a habit of sitting around with morbid thoughts of our physical death. We don’t allow ourselves to be consumed with thoughts of our own mortality. Those thoughts are for the most part foreign to us. We don’t think about our own death until we are forced to do so. This particular individual is certainly engaging in the art of presumption in relation to his own longetivity.
His second assumption is that he will be able to arrive at his destination. Again, when we plan to take a journey, we do the same thing. Just a couple weeks ago we set out for a trip to Texas to attend our grandson’s graduation from college. When we made our plans for the trip, we assumed that we would arrive safely at our son’s home in Mesquite, TX. which, thankfully, we did.
A third assumption was made that once he had arrived in his city of choice he would then engage in a successful business venture that would result in profit for him. I’m not sure of the state of economic volatility in the city to which he planned to travel, and I’m not sure of how much research he had put into this particular venture, but it sounds as if he was counting his chickens before they hatched, as the old saying goes. He was presuming that his venture would prove to be a success producing a windfall for him.
Still another matter of presumptive reasoning is that he planned to stay in this city for a year. Again, he is making assumptions based on very limited information and scanty knowledge of what the future would hold. The entirety of his reasoning in making these decisions was based on his presuming certain things would happen just the way he planned.
Now, is it wrong to make plans? Is it wrong for us, at the end of 2025, to make plans for 2026? No. But there is a right way, and there is a wrong way to make plans. James is giving us an example of the fallacy of presumptive reasoning, but he doesn’t leave his readers in the dark as to how to engage in proper reasoning. And it is extremely simple. He says that we should always practice the act of submitting our plans to God. We are to actively seek the Lord’s will in every decision we make.
As we prepared to leave for our first day of travel on our trip to Texas, the very first thing we did was seek the Lord’s will. We prayed for safety on the highway. At the end of the day’s traveling, we thanked God for safety. We did this every day. We actively sought the Lord’s will in everything as we drove the 2000+ miles of this journey.
It is not a difficult thing to do. As a matter of fact, it is one of the easiest things to do, but it is also one of the most important things. We should never engage in the fallacy of presumptive reasoning but rather give ourselves over to the Lord’s will in everything.
This is a fundamental part of the life of a sincere follower of Jesus Christ. It acknowledges that God’s will is far better than my own, and that I will actively seek His will in all my decision making. This is not a passive acceptance of waiting for God, but an active participation of obedience and submission as we actively pursue His will in our lives.
So, let’s look forward to the coming days of 2026 with anticipation and excitement, seeking His will in all things, not acting presumptively, but with the desire to follow His will as He makes it known through His Word and the leadership of the Holy Spirit.
